In the last four months, Nitish has conveyed his displeasure several times… During the assembly session, he had an altercation with the speaker. He was keeping distance from central government events. Did not attend the meeting of NITI Aayog two days ago. He also stayed away from the swearing-in of the President and the farewell ceremony of the outgoing President.
The Home Minister also did not attend Amit Shah’s meeting. The displeasure will increase so much that the alliance will break, the BJP would not even have imagined this. However, with the swearing-in ceremony of CM and Deputy CM held today ie Wednesday at 2 pm, the exercise of the new government will start in Bihar.
Nitish was also angry about not getting a free hand in the government:
The BJP was aware of the displeasure of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, but could not even get a clue of the change of side. She miserably missed the signals she was getting from JDU. The crisis of trust, especially in the RCP Singh case, further widened the gap between the two parties.
Nitish’s displeasure with the BJP was not new. Its trend had started in the assembly elections with Chirag Paswan’s rhetoric in favor of BJP and opposition to JDU. Nitish’s displeasure increased due to the JDU being reduced to half the seats in comparison to the BJP, not getting a free hand in running the government, the Speaker of the Assembly and the BJP State President continuously attacking the government.
RCP proved to be the last nail in the coffin:
Nitish lost his patience when RCP became a minister in the center amid resentment. JDU leaders say, RCP became minister without Nitish’s consent. Later, when Nitish did not give him a Rajya Sabha ticket, he started contacting JDU MLAs. Nitish felt that BJP was behind this. JDU several times accused the BJP of creating differences in JDU.
There were other reasons for separation:
An important factor in the separation was the entry of the BJP in the vote bank of JDU. Once the base of BJP was confined to the forefront of the state. However, later the party increased its penetration among Dalits and non-Yadav backwards also.
- Along with Mahadalit and Gairyadav backward, Pasmanda Muslims have been the core voters of JDU.
- JD-U continued to get the Pasmanda vote even after the alliance with the BJP, but after the arrival of Modi on the national scene, this vote bank went to the RJD. At the same time, the BJP infiltrated the second vote bank of JDU. Nitish was upset by this.
Top leadership remained indifferent to confrontation:
The BJP’s top leadership remained apathetic amid the prolonged conflict in Bihar. While in the government, BJP leaders were constantly targeting Nitish, but the party leadership was not interfering in this matter. After the meeting of the National Fronts of the BJP held in Patna last month, the central leadership certainly tried to handle the situation. But by then it was too late.
insulted the mandate:
The mandate was in favor of the NDA. Even after JDU got half the seats, BJP made Nitish the Chief Minister, respecting the alliance religion. Despite this, JDU has insulted the mandate by changing sides. BJP will campaign against Nitish in the entire state. – Sanjay Jaiswal, State President, BJP
Nitish will take oath as CM for the 8th time:
- March 2000
- November 2005
- November 2010
- February 2015
- November 2015
- July 2017
- November 2020
- August 2022
Earned in Maharashtra and lost in Bihar:
What the BJP had earned in Maharashtra last month, it lost in Bihar this month. With JDU switching sides, the BJP has no option but to wait for the beginning of the contradictions in the new government. If this government lasts long and runs well, the party’s troubles will increase instead of decreasing.
In fact, Nitish Kumar and JDU have been the key to the balance and power of the state’s politics for the last one and a half decade. With whom JDU has been with since 2005 till now, it also got the power of the state. At the same time, RJD has a strong vote bank of its own. With both the parties coming together, the BJP’s non-Yadav backward card cannot land firmly on the ground.
Lack of strong face:
- Since 2005, the BJP’s base in the state has increased among the most backward and Dalits along with the forwards. But then he got the support of other small parties including JDU.
- The BJP lost badly in the 2015 assembly elections after JD(U) left the NDA. The party does not have such a big face, which can give competition to Nitish or Tejashwi.
There is room for contradiction:
BJP hopes that voices of contradiction will arise in the new government soon. Especially the law and order will deteriorate. This will benefit BJP. Nitish has run the government from 2015 to 2017 with the support of RJD, Congress, but due to discord, he again joined the BJP.
Lok Sabha elections will be the turning point:
The upcoming Lok Sabha elections can prove to be the turning point for the politics of the state. In the year 2014, even after the split of JDU, the BJP-LJP alliance had won a landslide victory in the state. The BJP feels that the same will happen in the year 2024.
Parliament may also be affected by changed politics, Deputy Chairman of Rajya Sabha Harivansh is JDU MP:
The changing political equation of Bihar is believed to have an impact on Parliament as well. The Rajya Sabha may have to see the face of the new Deputy Chairman along with the new Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar. Harivansh Narayan Singh, Deputy Chairman of the Upper House, is a Rajya Sabha member of JD(U). Rajya Sabha had elected Harivansh as Deputy Chairman for the second time on September 14, 2020.
Political experts believe that the strong attitude with which Nitish Kumar has announced to break the alliance with the BJP in Bihar, it is possible that he may ask Harivansh to resign from the post of Deputy Chairman. Another possibility is that he may put the ball in the court of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi in the matter of the post of Deputy Chairman.
According to experts, in this condition, the BJP will always have doubts whether Harivansh will stand with the central government in critical times. On the other hand, Nitish Kumar would also like to know how Harivansh has his own stand. Somewhere, like RCP Singh, by colluding with the BJP, he will not prepare the land for a big political harvest.
According to experts, if BJP wants to remove Harivansh, then it has only two paths in front of it. Either Harivansh himself should resign. Or, for serious violations of law or parliamentary rules, the Upper House may complete the process of removing him by a two-thirds vote. However, it will not be easy for the BJP to garner a majority to remove the deputy chairman with a clean image like Harivansh.
A ray of hope for the battered opposition, new confidence will arise to give two hands to the BJP:
The developments in Bihar are like a new ray of hope for the opposition, which has been battered by the BJP as invincible. After this new development, the issues related to social justice in the Hindi belt region are likely to get air and the BJP’s core agenda such as population control, uniform civil code, NRC is likely to start anew political struggle. In these, especially on the question of caste census, a new political campaign can be started in the Hindi belt region.
It is worth noting that the election after election defeat, the recent change of power in Maharashtra had given a deep blow to the confidence of the opposition parties including Congress, TMC, SP. The opposition, especially in Maharashtra, was stunned after the Maha Vikas Aghadi government’s exit from power in the state following a split in the Shiv Sena, while the BJP’s confidence was in seventh heaven. However, the developments in Bihar will now instill a renewed confidence in the opposition.
The future will be decided by the performance of the government:
However, the important question is of coordination and performance in the new government of Bihar. If the government is successful in strengthening its credibility, then Nitish can go out to become the pivot of the opposition’s politics. If the situation reverses, the remaining hopes of opposition politics will also die.
Issues related to social justice will get new air in Hindi belt:
After the new social equation in Bihar, the issues related to social justice in the Hindi belt region may get renewed importance. Particularly in Bihar, the ruling coalition and the opposition parties of the Hindi belt will give prominence to the question of caste census.
In Bihar, JDU and RJD have been vocal on this issue for a long time. Opposition parties from other states including Uttar Pradesh have also been raising this issue from time to time. Apart from this, there may be a fresh hand-to-hand between the opposition and the government on issues related to the original agenda of the BJP.
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source https://spotlight7.com/national/bihar/bihar-political-crisis-nitish-kumar-taking-oath-today-nitish-was-angry-even-after-not-getting-free-hand/
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